Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bolton vs Preston — Championship 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Preston
Preston
L. Trotter 22'
M. Vermijl 86'
J. Hugill 57'
3/12/2016ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Macron Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton38%
×Draw27%
Preston35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.27
Preston
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 183 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.16
Preston
1.03

allows per match

Bolton
1.39
Preston
1.38

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
65%
Bolton or Preston
73%
Draw or Preston
62%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
17%
Preston wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
72%
Bolton 2+ goals
36%
Bolton 3+ goals
14%
Preston 1+ goals
70%
Preston 2+ goals
34%
Preston 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
52%
Preston (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Preston away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.38 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Preston defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Preston attack 1.03 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bolton scores more
38%
level
27%
Preston scores more
35%

Bolton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
L. TrotterBoltonBolton · M
7.7

Match Events

22'
L. Trotter↳ M. Davies
45'
Darren Pratley
45'
Bailey Wright
45'
Paul Gallagher
57'
J. Hugill↳ A. Reach
70'
Wellington Silva← D. Pratley
78'
M. Vermijl← D. Johnson
84'
K. Woolery← Z. Clough
84'
E. Doyle← J. Hugill
86'
M. Vermijl↳ G. Cunningham
88'
S. Dobbie← L. Wilson
90+1'
J. Welsh← P. Gallagher

Possession

52%Bolton

Shots

11Bolton

Pass accuracy

52%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonPreston
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots9
7Corners2
0Fouls0
Shots
11Total Shots9
5On Target3
3Off Target2
3Blocked4
6Inside Box4
5Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
418Total Passes369
325Accurate Passes263
78%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
0Fouls0
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
4Offsides3

Championship: Bolton 1–2 Preston

Preston beat Bolton 2-1 in Championship on March 12, 2016.

Goals: L. Trotter (22'), J. Hugill (57'), M. Vermijl (86').

Bolton controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Macron Stadium in Bolton.