Apollon Smirnis 1–2 PAS Giannina: Result & Stats

Apollon Smirnis

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

PAS Giannina

10/21/2020

Super League 1 · Round 1Stadio Georgios Kamaras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Apollon Smirnis35%

×Draw29%

PAS Giannina37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apollon SmirnisExpected goals in this matchPAS Giannina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.14

Apollon Smirnis

1.10

PAS Giannina

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 83 away

0.61

creates per match

0.88

1.39

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Apollon Smirnis

0.61

PAS Giannina

0.88

allows per match

Apollon Smirnis

1.39

PAS Giannina

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apollon Smirnis+0.00on par

PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Smirnis ↓

PAS Giannina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Apollon Smirnis or draw

63%

Apollon Smirnis or PAS Giannina

71%

Draw or PAS Giannina

65%

Winning margin

Apollon Smirnis wins by 2+

14%

PAS Giannina wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Apollon Smirnis 1+ goals

67%

Apollon Smirnis 2+ goals

30%

Apollon Smirnis 3+ goals

10%

PAS Giannina 1+ goals

68%

PAS Giannina 2+ goals

32%

PAS Giannina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Apollon Smirnis (draw refunded)

49%

PAS Giannina (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Smirnis at home — creates 0.61, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Smirnis attack 0.61 + PAS Giannina defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.10

PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + Apollon Smirnis defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Apollon Smirnis scores more

35%

level

29%

PAS Giannina scores more

37%

PAS Giannina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "PAS Giannina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff