Apollon Limassol W 3–0 Swansea City W

Apollon Limassol W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Swansea City W

11/4/2020

UEFA Champions League Women · R60310Athlítiko Kentro Zenon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Apollon Limassol W78%

×Draw14%

Swansea City W8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apollon Limassol WExpected goals in this matchSwansea City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

0.69

Apollon Limassol W

2.63

Swansea City W

0.69

Apollon Limassol W creates 281% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

2.92

creates per match

0.00

1.38

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Apollon Limassol W

2.92

Swansea City W

0.00

allows per match

Apollon Limassol W

1.38

Swansea City W

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apollon Limassol W+0.00on par

Swansea City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol W ↓

Swansea City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol W or draw

92%

Apollon Limassol W or Swansea City W

86%

Draw or Swansea City W

22%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol W wins by 2+

57%

Swansea City W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol W 1+ goals

93%

Apollon Limassol W 2+ goals

73%

Apollon Limassol W 3+ goals

48%

Swansea City W 1+ goals

50%

Swansea City W 2+ goals

15%

Swansea City W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol W (draw refunded)

91%

Swansea City W (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol W at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Swansea City W away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol W attack 2.92 + Swansea City W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.63

Swansea City W attack 0.00 + Apollon Limassol W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Apollon Limassol W scores more

78%

level

14%

Swansea City W scores more

8%

Apollon Limassol W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Apollon Limassol W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff