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Apollon Limassol W vs Sporting Braga W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Apollon Limassol W
Apollon Limassol W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Braga W
Sporting Braga W
8/10/2019UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Qualifying Round - 2Stadions Arkādija grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Apollon Limassol W25%
×Draw21%
Sporting Braga W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apollon Limassol W
1.46
Sporting Braga W
2.19

Sporting Braga W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Apollon Limassol W
2.92
Sporting Braga W
3.00

allows per match

Apollon Limassol W
1.38
Sporting Braga W
0.00

finishing

Apollon Limassol W+0.00on par
Sporting Braga W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol W ↓

Sporting Braga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol W or draw
46%
Apollon Limassol W or Sporting Braga W
79%
Draw or Sporting Braga W
75%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol W wins by 2+
11%
Sporting Braga W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol W 1+ goals
77%
Apollon Limassol W 2+ goals
43%
Apollon Limassol W 3+ goals
18%
Sporting Braga W 1+ goals
89%
Sporting Braga W 2+ goals
64%
Sporting Braga W 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol W (draw refunded)
32%
Sporting Braga W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol W at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Sporting Braga W away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol W attack 2.92 + Sporting Braga W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sporting Braga W attack 3.00 + Apollon Limassol W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Apollon Limassol W scores more
25%
level
21%
Sporting Braga W scores more
54%

Sporting Braga W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sporting Braga W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apollon Limassol W vs Sporting Braga W

Sporting Braga W beat Apollon Limassol W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Stadions Arkādija grass in Riga.