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Apollon Limassol W vs SFK Rīga W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Apollon Limassol W
Apollon Limassol Wadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
SFK Rīga W
SFK Rīga W
8/18/2022UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsMakareio Stadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Apollon Limassol W80%
×Draw13%
SFK Rīga W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apollon Limassol W
2.96
SFK Rīga W
0.81

Apollon Limassol W creates 265% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

creates per match

Apollon Limassol W
2.92
SFK Rīga W
0.25

allows per match

Apollon Limassol W
1.38
SFK Rīga W
3.00

finishing

Apollon Limassol W+0.00on par
SFK Rīga W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol W ↓

SFK Rīga W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol W or draw
93%
Apollon Limassol W or SFK Rīga W
87%
Draw or SFK Rīga W
20%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol W wins by 2+
60%
SFK Rīga W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol W 1+ goals
95%
Apollon Limassol W 2+ goals
79%
Apollon Limassol W 3+ goals
55%
SFK Rīga W 1+ goals
56%
SFK Rīga W 2+ goals
19%
SFK Rīga W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol W (draw refunded)
91%
SFK Rīga W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol W at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

SFK Rīga W away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol W attack 2.92 + SFK Rīga W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.96

SFK Rīga W attack 0.25 + Apollon Limassol W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Apollon Limassol W scores more
80%
level
13%
SFK Rīga W scores more
7%

Apollon Limassol W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Apollon Limassol W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Apollon Limassol W 3–0 SFK Rīga W

Apollon Limassol W beat SFK Rīga W 3-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 18, 2022.

The match was played at Makareio Stadio in Lefkosía.