Apollon Limassol W 3–0 Nike W: Result & Stats

Apollon Limassol W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nike W

Joana Dantas 87'

M. Kalyan 71'

K. Brinkman 9'

9/9/2023

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - FinalsMestni Štadion Fazanerija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Apollon Limassol W89%

×Draw7%

Nike W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apollon Limassol WExpected goals in this matchNike W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.83

0.69

Apollon Limassol W

3.83

Nike W

0.69

Apollon Limassol W creates 455% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

2.92

creates per match

0.00

1.38

allows per match

4.75

creates per match

Apollon Limassol W

2.92

Nike W

0.00

allows per match

Apollon Limassol W

1.38

Nike W

4.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apollon Limassol W+0.00on par

Nike W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol W ↓

Nike W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol W or draw

97%

Apollon Limassol W or Nike W

93%

Draw or Nike W

11%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol W wins by 2+

75%

Nike W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol W 1+ goals

98%

Apollon Limassol W 2+ goals

88%

Apollon Limassol W 3+ goals

71%

Nike W 1+ goals

50%

Nike W 2+ goals

15%

Nike W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol W (draw refunded)

96%

Nike W (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol W at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Nike W away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol W attack 2.92 + Nike W defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.83

Nike W attack 0.00 + Apollon Limassol W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Apollon Limassol W scores more

89%

level

7%

Nike W scores more

3%

Apollon Limassol W at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Apollon Limassol W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

K. Brinkman

15'

M. Janikashvili← N. Jojua

55'

E. Acheampong← K. Brinkman

55'

M. Kalyan← S. Nasello

59'

A. Kirvalidze← E. Chikovani

64'

S. Hardy

71'

M. Kalyan

72'

E. Oppong← S. Hardy

73'

E. Giannou← C. Sebazco

75'

77'

82'

87'

90+5'

90+4'

G. Papaskiri← Jessica

Apollon

Nike

1

Neves

32

Milchevsk

6

Akobidze

19

▼

Jojua

2

Harvey

17

Villegas

18

▼

Jessica

77

Enjibadze

7

▼

11

10

13

30

6

▼

Hardy

3

Watson

8

Savva

33

▼

Anokye

10

⚽

Dantas

2

▼

Sebazco

17

Georgiou

35

▼

Nasello

19

⚽

▼

Brinkman

Manager: L. Fassotte

55'▲E. Acheampong←▼K. Brinkman

55'▲M. Kalyan←▼S. Nasello

72'▲E. Oppong←▼S. Hardy

73'▲E. Giannou←▼C. Sebazco

82'▲S. Taylor←▼O. Anokye

Apollon Limassol W substitutes

15Acheampong12Kalyan14Oppong11Giannou16Taylor28Míla21Freda1Matthaiou7Panagiotou

Manager: G. Kvaratskhelia

15'▲M. Janikashvili←▼N. Jojua

59'▲A. Kirvalidze←▼E. Chikovani

90+4'▲G. Papaskiri←▼Jessica

Nike W substitutes

3Janikashvili13Kirvalidze4Papaskiri12Tchrikishvili