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Apollon Limassol W vs Ljuboten W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Apollon Limassol W
Apollon Limassol Wadvanced
FT
9 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Ljuboten W
Ljuboten W
9/6/2023UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsŠC NK Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Apollon Limassol W93%
×Draw5%
Ljuboten W2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apollon Limassol W
4.89
Ljuboten W
0.83

Apollon Limassol W creates 489% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Apollon Limassol W
2.92
Ljuboten W
0.29

allows per match

Apollon Limassol W
1.38
Ljuboten W
6.86

finishing

Apollon Limassol W+0.00on par
Ljuboten W+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol W ↓

Ljuboten W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol W or draw
98%
Apollon Limassol W or Ljuboten W
95%
Draw or Ljuboten W
7%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol W wins by 2+
83%
Ljuboten W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol W 1+ goals
99%
Apollon Limassol W 2+ goals
94%
Apollon Limassol W 3+ goals
83%
Ljuboten W 1+ goals
56%
Ljuboten W 2+ goals
20%
Ljuboten W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol W (draw refunded)
98%
Ljuboten W (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol W at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Ljuboten W away — creates 0.29, concedes 6.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol W attack 2.92 + Ljuboten W defence 6.86 → ÷2 → 4.89

Ljuboten W attack 0.29 + Apollon Limassol W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Apollon Limassol W scores more
93%
level
5%
Ljuboten W scores more
2%

Apollon Limassol W at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Apollon Limassol W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Apollon Limassol W 9–0 Ljuboten W

Apollon Limassol W beat Ljuboten W 9-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at ŠC NK Slatina in Radenci.