Apollon Limassol 2–0 Lazio: Result & Stats

Apollon Limassol

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lazio

11/29/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 5GSP Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Apollon Limassol51%

×Draw22%

Lazio27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apollon LimassolExpected goals in this matchLazio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.41

Apollon Limassol

1.98

Lazio

1.41

Apollon Limassol creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

2.11

creates per match

0.93

1.89

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Apollon Limassol

2.11

Lazio

0.93

allows per match

Apollon Limassol

1.89

Lazio

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

Lazio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol ↓

Lazio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol or draw

73%

Apollon Limassol or Lazio

78%

Draw or Lazio

49%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol wins by 2+

29%

Lazio wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol 1+ goals

86%

Apollon Limassol 2+ goals

59%

Apollon Limassol 3+ goals

31%

Lazio 1+ goals

76%

Lazio 2+ goals

41%

Lazio 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)

65%

Lazio (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Lazio away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol attack 2.11 + Lazio defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Lazio attack 0.93 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Apollon Limassol scores more

51%

level

22%

Lazio scores more

27%

Apollon Limassol at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Apollon Limassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff