Apollon Limassol 3–0 Karmiotissa: Result & Stats

Apollon Limassol

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karmiotissa

1/18/2025

1. Division · Round 19Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Apollon Limassol57%

×Draw23%

Karmiotissa20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apollon LimassolExpected goals in this matchKarmiotissa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.98

Apollon Limassol

1.81

Karmiotissa

0.98

Apollon Limassol creates 85% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 76 away

1.62

creates per match

0.96

1.00

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Apollon Limassol

1.62

Karmiotissa

0.96

allows per match

Apollon Limassol

1.00

Karmiotissa

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apollon Limassol+0.00on par

Karmiotissa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol ↓

Karmiotissa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol or draw

80%

Apollon Limassol or Karmiotissa

77%

Draw or Karmiotissa

43%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol wins by 2+

32%

Karmiotissa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol 1+ goals

84%

Apollon Limassol 2+ goals

54%

Apollon Limassol 3+ goals

27%

Karmiotissa 1+ goals

62%

Karmiotissa 2+ goals

26%

Karmiotissa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)

74%

Karmiotissa (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 119 matches

Karmiotissa away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.01 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol attack 1.62 + Karmiotissa defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.81

Karmiotissa attack 0.96 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Apollon Limassol scores more

57%

level

23%

Karmiotissa scores more

20%

Apollon Limassol at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Apollon Limassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff