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Apollon Limassol vs Doxa — 1. Division 2019

Apollon Limassol
Apollon Limassol
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Doxa
Doxa
10/8/20231. Division1. Division · Round 7Alphamega Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Apollon Limassol52%
×Draw25%
Doxa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apollon Limassol
1.58
Doxa
0.96

Apollon Limassol creates 65% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 87 away

creates per match

Apollon Limassol
1.62
Doxa
0.92

allows per match

Apollon Limassol
1.00
Doxa
1.54

finishing

Apollon Limassol+0.00on par
Doxa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apollon Limassol ↓

Doxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Apollon Limassol or draw
77%
Apollon Limassol or Doxa
75%
Draw or Doxa
48%

Winning margin

Apollon Limassol wins by 2+
27%
Doxa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Apollon Limassol 1+ goals
79%
Apollon Limassol 2+ goals
47%
Apollon Limassol 3+ goals
21%
Doxa 1+ goals
62%
Doxa 2+ goals
25%
Doxa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Apollon Limassol (draw refunded)
69%
Doxa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apollon Limassol at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.00 · 119 matches

Doxa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.54 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apollon Limassol attack 1.62 + Doxa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Doxa attack 0.92 + Apollon Limassol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Apollon Limassol scores more
52%
level
25%
Doxa scores more
23%

Apollon Limassol at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Apollon Limassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apollon Limassol vs Doxa

Apollon Limassol beat Doxa 4-0 in 1. Division on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Alphamega Stadium in Kolossi.