Apoel Nicosia 2–0 Enosis: Result & Stats

Apoel Nicosia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Enosis

A. Donis 22'

D. Abagna 13'

12/15/2024

1. Division · Round 14Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Apoel Nicosia69%

×Draw19%

Enosis12%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apoel NicosiaExpected goals in this matchEnosis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.74

Apoel Nicosia

2.11

Enosis

0.74

Apoel Nicosia creates 185% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

1.15

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

Apoel Nicosia

1.50

Enosis

0.33

allows per match

Apoel Nicosia

1.15

Enosis

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Enosis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apoel Nicosia ↓

Enosis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Apoel Nicosia or draw

88%

Apoel Nicosia or Enosis

81%

Draw or Enosis

31%

Winning margin

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+

44%

Enosis wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals

88%

Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals

62%

Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals

35%

Enosis 1+ goals

52%

Enosis 2+ goals

17%

Enosis 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)

85%

Enosis (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apoel Nicosia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Enosis away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.50 + Enosis defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.11

Enosis attack 0.33 + Apoel Nicosia defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Apoel Nicosia scores more

69%

level

19%

Enosis scores more

12%

Apoel Nicosia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Donis

Apoel Nicosia · M

8.5

Match Events

3'

Niv Gotlieb

13'

D. Abagna

22'

A. Donis

46'

I. Milićević← A. Christofi

62'

Youssef El ArabiMissed penalty

65'

G. Kostadinov← Y. El-Arabi

65'

T. Barry← E. Andreou

65'

M. Charalambous← M. Krainz

79'

M. Meyer← Pizzi

79'

D. Ndongala← A. Donis

83'

D. Mavroudis← N. Gotlieb

83'

L. Kosma← F. Kotsónis

86'

Loizos Kosmas

87'

Gabriel Maioli← S. Dražić

87'

M. Sušić← Xavi Quintillà

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ApoelEnosis

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots6

2.58Expected Goals (xG)0.32

7Corners2

12Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots6

7On Target0

4Off Target4

4Blocked2

11Inside Box0

4Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

693Total Passes331

614Accurate Passes281

89%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1