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Apoel Nicosia vs AEL — 1. Division 2019

Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AEL
AEL
11/10/20241. Division1. Division · Round 10Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Apoel Nicosia52%
×Draw26%
AEL22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apoel Nicosia
1.52
AEL
0.90

Apoel Nicosia creates 69% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 117 away

creates per match

Apoel Nicosia
1.61
AEL
1.03

allows per match

Apoel Nicosia
0.76
AEL
1.44

finishing

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par
AEL+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apoel Nicosia ↓

AEL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Apoel Nicosia or draw
78%
Apoel Nicosia or AEL
74%
Draw or AEL
48%

Winning margin

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+
27%
AEL wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals
78%
Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals
45%
Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals
20%
AEL 1+ goals
59%
AEL 2+ goals
23%
AEL 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)
70%
AEL (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apoel Nicosia at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.76 · 119 matches

AEL away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.61 + AEL defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

AEL attack 1.03 + Apoel Nicosia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Apoel Nicosia scores more
52%
level
26%
AEL scores more
22%

Apoel Nicosia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Apoel Nicosia 4–0 AEL

Apoel Nicosia beat AEL 4-0 in 1. Division on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Neo GSP in Levkosía.