Apoel Nicosia 2–2 AEK Larnaca: Result & Stats

Apoel Nicosia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

AEK Larnaca

2/5/2024

1. Division · Round 23Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Apoel Nicosia44%

×Draw28%

AEK Larnaca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apoel NicosiaExpected goals in this matchAEK Larnaca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.02

Apoel Nicosia

1.33

AEK Larnaca

1.02

Apoel Nicosia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 118 away

1.61

creates per match

1.29

0.76

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Apoel Nicosia

1.61

AEK Larnaca

1.29

allows per match

Apoel Nicosia

0.76

AEK Larnaca

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apoel Nicosia ↓

AEK Larnaca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Apoel Nicosia or draw

71%

Apoel Nicosia or AEK Larnaca

72%

Draw or AEK Larnaca

56%

Winning margin

Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+

20%

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals

74%

Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals

38%

Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals

15%

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals

64%

AEK Larnaca 2+ goals

27%

AEK Larnaca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)

60%

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apoel Nicosia at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.76 · 119 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.61 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

AEK Larnaca attack 1.29 + Apoel Nicosia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Apoel Nicosia scores more

44%

level

28%

AEK Larnaca scores more

29%

Apoel Nicosia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff