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AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia — 1. Division 2019

AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
5/4/20251. Division1. Division · Championship Round - 8AEK Arena - George Karapatakis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

AEK Larnaca44%
×Draw26%
Apoel Nicosia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEK Larnaca
1.44
Apoel Nicosia
1.14

AEK Larnaca creates 26% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 120 away

creates per match

AEK Larnaca
1.74
Apoel Nicosia
1.39

allows per match

AEK Larnaca
0.89
Apoel Nicosia
1.14

finishing

AEK Larnaca+0.00on par
Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Larnaca ↓

Apoel Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AEK Larnaca or draw
70%
AEK Larnaca or Apoel Nicosia
74%
Draw or Apoel Nicosia
56%

Winning margin

AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
21%
Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
76%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
42%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
18%
Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals
68%
Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals
32%
Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
59%
Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Larnaca at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 117 matches

Apoel Nicosia away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Larnaca attack 1.74 + Apoel Nicosia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.39 + AEK Larnaca defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AEK Larnaca scores more
44%
level
26%
Apoel Nicosia scores more
30%

AEK Larnaca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: AEK Larnaca 3–0 Apoel Nicosia

AEK Larnaca beat Apoel Nicosia 3-0 in 1. Division on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis in Larnaca.