APIA Leichhardt Tigers 0–2 Sydney: Result & Stats

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sydney

8/30/2023

Australia Cup · Round of 16Leichhardt Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers23%

×Draw22%

Sydney55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

APIA Leichhardt TigersExpected goals in this matchSydney

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.94

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.17

Sydney

1.94

Sydney creates 66% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.20

creates per match

1.88

2.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.20

Sydney

1.88

allows per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

2.00

Sydney

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APIA Leichhardt Tigers ↓

Sydney →

0–04%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or draw

45%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or Sydney

78%

Draw or Sydney

77%

Winning margin

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+

Sydney wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals

69%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals

33%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals

11%

Sydney 1+ goals

86%

Sydney 2+ goals

58%

Sydney 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)

29%

Sydney (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Sydney away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.20 + Sydney defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sydney attack 1.88 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more

23%

level

22%

Sydney scores more

55%

Sydney at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff