APIA Leichhardt Tigers 4–0 Manly United

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Manly United

3/3/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 3Leichhardt Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers54%

×Draw23%

Manly United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

APIA Leichhardt TigersExpected goals in this matchManly United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.14

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.85

Manly United

1.14

APIA Leichhardt Tigers creates 62% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 92 away

2.06

creates per match

1.16

1.12

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

2.06

Manly United

1.16

allows per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.12

Manly United

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Manly United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APIA Leichhardt Tigers ↓

Manly United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or draw

77%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or Manly United

77%

Draw or Manly United

46%

Winning margin

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+

31%

Manly United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals

84%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals

55%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals

28%

Manly United 1+ goals

68%

Manly United 2+ goals

32%

Manly United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)

70%

Manly United (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.12 · 98 matches

Manly United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 2.06 + Manly United defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.85

Manly United attack 1.16 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more

54%

level

23%

Manly United scores more

23%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "APIA Leichhardt Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff