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APIA Leichhardt Tigers vs Central Coast Mariners — Australia Cup 2021

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
APIA Leichhardt Tigers
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Marinersadvanced
12/21/2021Australia CupAustralia Cup · Quarter-finalsLeichhardt Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers15%
×Draw20%
Central Coast Mariners65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
0.90
Central Coast Mariners
2.10

Central Coast Mariners creates 133% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
1.20
Central Coast Mariners
2.20

allows per match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers
2.00
Central Coast Mariners
0.60

finishing

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APIA Leichhardt Tigers ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

APIA Leichhardt Tigers or draw
35%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers or Central Coast Mariners
80%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
85%

Winning margin

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+
5%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals
59%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals
23%
APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals
6%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
88%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
62%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)
19%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APIA Leichhardt Tigers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.20 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.90

Central Coast Mariners attack 2.20 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more
15%
level
20%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
65%

Central Coast Mariners at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: APIA Leichhardt Tigers 0–6 Central Coast Mariners

Central Coast Mariners beat APIA Leichhardt Tigers 6-0 in Australia Cup on December 21, 2021.

The match was played at Leichhardt Oval in Sydney.