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APEJES Academy vs Young Sport Academy — Elite One 2019

APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
FT
0 – 0
Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
4/5/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 7Stade Annexe 2 de Japoma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

APEJES Academy42%
×Draw28%
Young Sport Academy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APEJES Academy
1.26
Young Sport Academy
1.00

APEJES Academy creates 26% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 79 away

creates per match

APEJES Academy
1.20
Young Sport Academy
0.94

allows per match

APEJES Academy
1.07
Young Sport Academy
1.32

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par
Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

Young Sport Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw
71%
APEJES Academy or Young Sport Academy
72%
Draw or Young Sport Academy
58%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+
19%
Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals
72%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
36%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
13%
Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
63%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
26%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
59%
Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 1.20 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + APEJES Academy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

APEJES Academy scores more
42%
level
28%
Young Sport Academy scores more
29%

APEJES Academy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: APEJES Academy 0–0 Young Sport Academy

APEJES Academy and Young Sport Academy drew 0-0 in Elite One on April 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 2 de Japoma in Douala.