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APEJES Academy vs Union Douala — Elite Two 2020

APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Union Douala
Union Douala
4/11/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

APEJES Academy58%
×Draw20%
Union Douala21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APEJES Academy
2.18
Union Douala
1.25

APEJES Academy creates 74% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

APEJES Academy
2.00
Union Douala
1.45

allows per match

APEJES Academy
1.05
Union Douala
2.36

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw
79%
APEJES Academy or Union Douala
80%
Draw or Union Douala
42%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+
36%
Union Douala wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals
89%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
64%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
37%
Union Douala 1+ goals
71%
Union Douala 2+ goals
36%
Union Douala 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
73%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Union Douala away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 2.00 + Union Douala defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.18

Union Douala attack 1.45 + APEJES Academy defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

APEJES Academy scores more
58%
level
20%
Union Douala scores more
21%

APEJES Academy at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: APEJES Academy vs Union Douala

APEJES Academy beat Union Douala 3-1 in Elite Two on April 11, 2026.