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APEJES Academy vs Tonnerre — Elite One 2019

APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
FT
1 – 1
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
12/15/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 13Stade Militaire

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

APEJES Academy44%
×Draw30%
Tonnerre26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APEJES Academy
1.19
Tonnerre
0.85

APEJES Academy creates 40% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 36 away

creates per match

APEJES Academy
1.20
Tonnerre
0.64

allows per match

APEJES Academy
1.07
Tonnerre
1.19

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw
74%
APEJES Academy or Tonnerre
70%
Draw or Tonnerre
56%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+
19%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals
70%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
33%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
12%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
57%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
21%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
63%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 1.20 + Tonnerre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tonnerre attack 0.64 + APEJES Academy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

APEJES Academy scores more
44%
level
30%
Tonnerre scores more
26%

APEJES Academy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: APEJES Academy 1–1 Tonnerre

APEJES Academy and Tonnerre drew 1-1 in Elite One on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Militaire in Yaoundé.