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APEJES Academy vs PWD Bamenda — Elite One 2019

APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
CANC
00:00
PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
4/12/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

APEJES Academy39%
×Draw29%
PWD Bamenda32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APEJES Academy
1.19
PWD Bamenda
1.04

APEJES Academy creates 14% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 99 away

creates per match

APEJES Academy
1.20
PWD Bamenda
1.01

allows per match

APEJES Academy
1.07
PWD Bamenda
1.18

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par
PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

PWD Bamenda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw
68%
APEJES Academy or PWD Bamenda
71%
Draw or PWD Bamenda
61%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+
17%
PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals
70%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
33%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
12%
PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
65%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
28%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
55%
PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 1.20 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + APEJES Academy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

APEJES Academy scores more
39%
level
29%
PWD Bamenda scores more
32%

APEJES Academy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

APEJES Academy face PWD Bamenda (Elite One)

Elite One returns with APEJES Academy hosting PWD Bamenda. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.