APEJES Academy 2–0 Les Astres: Result & Stats

APEJES Academy

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Les Astres

12/28/2022

Elite One · Round 10Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

APEJES Academy41%

×Draw28%

Les Astres31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

APEJES AcademyExpected goals in this matchLes Astres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.05

APEJES Academy

1.25

Les Astres

1.05

APEJES Academy creates 19% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 75 away

1.20

creates per match

1.03

1.07

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

APEJES Academy

1.20

Les Astres

1.03

allows per match

APEJES Academy

1.07

Les Astres

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

Les Astres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw

69%

APEJES Academy or Les Astres

72%

Draw or Les Astres

59%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+

18%

Les Astres wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals

71%

APEJES Academy 2+ goals

36%

APEJES Academy 3+ goals

13%

Les Astres 1+ goals

65%

Les Astres 2+ goals

28%

Les Astres 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)

57%

Les Astres (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 1.20 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Les Astres attack 1.03 + APEJES Academy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

APEJES Academy scores more

41%

level

28%

Les Astres scores more

31%

APEJES Academy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff