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APEJES Academy vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
1/11/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

APEJES Academy61%
×Draw21%
Foncha ST18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APEJES Academy
2.06
Foncha ST
1.04

APEJES Academy creates 98% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 50 away

creates per match

APEJES Academy
2.00
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

APEJES Academy
1.05
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw
82%
APEJES Academy or Foncha ST
79%
Draw or Foncha ST
39%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+
37%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals
87%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
61%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
34%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
65%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
28%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
77%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 2.00 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.06

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + APEJES Academy defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

APEJES Academy scores more
61%
level
21%
Foncha ST scores more
18%

APEJES Academy at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: APEJES Academy 4–1 Foncha ST

APEJES Academy beat Foncha ST 4-1 in Elite Two on January 11, 2025.