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Aparecidense vs Tombense — Serie C 2018

Aparecidense
Aparecidense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
6/15/2024Serie CSerie C · Round 9Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Aparecidense42%
×Draw29%
Tombense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aparecidense
1.23
Tombense
0.97

Aparecidense creates 27% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 59 away

creates per match

Aparecidense
1.16
Tombense
0.75

allows per match

Aparecidense
1.19
Tombense
1.29

finishing

Aparecidense+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecidense ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aparecidense or draw
71%
Aparecidense or Tombense
71%
Draw or Tombense
58%

Winning margin

Aparecidense wins by 2+
19%
Tombense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aparecidense 1+ goals
71%
Aparecidense 2+ goals
35%
Aparecidense 3+ goals
13%
Tombense 1+ goals
62%
Tombense 2+ goals
25%
Tombense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aparecidense (draw refunded)
59%
Tombense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecidense at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecidense attack 1.16 + Tombense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tombense attack 0.75 + Aparecidense defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aparecidense scores more
42%
level
29%
Tombense scores more
29%

Aparecidense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aparecidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aparecidense vs Tombense

Aparecidense beat Tombense 2-1 in Serie C on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo in Aparecida de Goiânia, Goiás.