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Aparecidense vs Novoperário — Serie D 2018

Aparecidense
Aparecidense
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Novoperário
Novoperário
5/27/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo (Aparecida de Goiânia, Goiás)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Aparecidense55%
×Draw21%
Novoperário23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aparecidense
2.08
Novoperário
1.29

Aparecidense creates 61% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 4 away

creates per match

Aparecidense
1.92
Novoperário
1.50

allows per match

Aparecidense
1.08
Novoperário
2.25

finishing

Aparecidense+0.00on par
Novoperário+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecidense ↓

Novoperário →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Aparecidense or draw
77%
Aparecidense or Novoperário
79%
Draw or Novoperário
45%

Winning margin

Aparecidense wins by 2+
33%
Novoperário wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aparecidense 1+ goals
87%
Aparecidense 2+ goals
61%
Aparecidense 3+ goals
34%
Novoperário 1+ goals
72%
Novoperário 2+ goals
37%
Novoperário 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aparecidense (draw refunded)
70%
Novoperário (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecidense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Novoperário away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecidense attack 1.92 + Novoperário defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.08

Novoperário attack 1.50 + Aparecidense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Aparecidense scores more
55%
level
21%
Novoperário scores more
23%

Aparecidense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Aparecidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Aparecidense 2–3 Novoperário

Novoperário beat Aparecidense 3-2 in Serie D on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo (Aparecida de Goiânia, Goiás).