Aparecidense 4–0 Interporto: Result & Stats

Aparecidense

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Interporto

5/11/2019

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo (Aparecida de Goiânia, Goiás)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aparecidense82%

×Draw12%

Interporto6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AparecidenseExpected goals in this matchInterporto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

0.66

Aparecidense

2.88

Interporto

0.66

Aparecidense creates 336% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

0.23

1.08

allows per match

3.85

creates per match

Aparecidense

1.92

Interporto

0.23

allows per match

Aparecidense

1.08

Interporto

3.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aparecidense+0.00on par

Interporto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecidense ↓

Interporto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Aparecidense or draw

94%

Aparecidense or Interporto

88%

Draw or Interporto

18%

Winning margin

Aparecidense wins by 2+

62%

Interporto wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Aparecidense 1+ goals

94%

Aparecidense 2+ goals

78%

Aparecidense 3+ goals

54%

Interporto 1+ goals

48%

Interporto 2+ goals

14%

Interporto 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Aparecidense (draw refunded)

93%

Interporto (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecidense at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

Interporto away — creates 0.23, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecidense attack 1.92 + Interporto defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.88

Interporto attack 0.23 + Aparecidense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Aparecidense scores more

82%

level

12%

Interporto scores more

6%

Aparecidense at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Aparecidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff