Aparecidense 2–1 Goianésia: Result & Stats

Aparecidense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Goianésia

Joao Marcos 70' (pen)

Kaio Nunes 56'

Tabata 76'

Wesley 12'

7/12/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Aparecidense49%

×Draw25%

Goianésia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AparecidenseExpected goals in this matchGoianésia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.06

Aparecidense

1.56

Goianésia

1.06

Aparecidense creates 47% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 27 away

1.82

creates per match

1.04

1.07

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Aparecidense

1.82

Goianésia

1.04

allows per match

Aparecidense

1.07

Goianésia

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aparecidense+0.00on par

Goianésia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecidense ↓

Goianésia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Aparecidense or draw

74%

Aparecidense or Goianésia

75%

Draw or Goianésia

51%

Winning margin

Aparecidense wins by 2+

25%

Goianésia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aparecidense 1+ goals

79%

Aparecidense 2+ goals

46%

Aparecidense 3+ goals

21%

Goianésia 1+ goals

65%

Goianésia 2+ goals

29%

Goianésia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Aparecidense (draw refunded)

65%

Goianésia (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecidense at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.07 · 40 matches

Goianésia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecidense attack 1.82 + Goianésia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Goianésia attack 1.04 + Aparecidense defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aparecidense scores more

49%

level

25%

Goianésia scores more

26%

Aparecidense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aparecidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Wesley

56'

Kaio Nunes

70'

Joao MarcosPenalty

76'

Tabata

Aparecidense

Goianésia

Manager: Lúcio Flávio

Manager: Gian Rodrigues