Aparecidense 2–2 ABC: Result & Stats | Serie C

Aparecidense

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

ABC

Felipe Menezes 79'

Alex Henrique 60' (pen)

Wallyson 87'

Henan 42'

7/4/2022

Serie C · Round 13Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Aparecidense40%

×Draw30%

ABC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AparecidenseExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.98

Aparecidense

1.15

ABC

0.98

Aparecidense creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 53 away

1.16

creates per match

0.77

1.19

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Aparecidense

1.16

ABC

0.77

allows per match

Aparecidense

1.19

ABC

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aparecidense+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecidense ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Aparecidense or draw

69%

Aparecidense or ABC

70%

Draw or ABC

60%

Winning margin

Aparecidense wins by 2+

17%

ABC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aparecidense 1+ goals

68%

Aparecidense 2+ goals

32%

Aparecidense 3+ goals

11%

ABC 1+ goals

62%

ABC 2+ goals

26%

ABC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aparecidense (draw refunded)

56%

ABC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecidense at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecidense attack 1.16 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

ABC attack 0.77 + Aparecidense defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aparecidense scores more

40%

level

30%

ABC scores more

31%

Aparecidense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aparecidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

28'

36'

42'

46'

Guilherme Nunes← Wellington

49'

Matheus Rocha← Marcos Vinicius

54'

Henan

60'

Alex HenriquePenalty

68'

Cardoso← Jefferson Renan

68'

Felipe Menezes← Robert

70'

Renato

76'

Jefinho← Henan

76'

Thallyson← Walfrido

76'

Wallyson← Gustavo França

79'

Felipe Menezes

84'

L. B. Estevao J.

87'

Wallyson

88'

89'

Wesley Matos← Alex Henrique

Aparecidense

ABC

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Henrique

▼

Gilvan

Manager: Moacir Júnior

36'▲Joãozinho←▼Gilvan

68'▲Cardoso←▼Jefferson Renan

68'▲Felipe Menezes←▼Robert

89'▲Wesley Matos←▼Alex Henrique

Aparecidense substitutes

JoãozinhoCardosoMenezesMatosAdrielHenriquePauliDerliIsraelLealReisVanderley

Manager: Fernando Marchiori

46'▲Guilherme Nunes←▼Wellington

49'▲Matheus Rocha←▼Marcos Vinicius

76'▲Jefinho←▼Henan

76'▲Thallyson←▼Walfrido

76'▲Wallyson←▼Gustavo França

ABC substitutes

NunesRochaJefinhoThallysonWallysonPorozoEduardoGeovaniNogueira

Serie C: Aparecidense 2–2 ABC

Aparecidense and ABC drew 2-2 in Serie C on July 4, 2022.

Goals: Henan (42'), Alex Henrique (60' pen), Felipe Menezes (79'), Wallyson (87').

The match was played at Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo in Aparecida de Goiânia, Goiás.

Aparecidense vs ABC — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Aparecidense 2–2 ABC