Aparecidense U20 1–2 Trindade U20: Result & Stats

Aparecidense U20

FT

1 – 2

Trindade U20

2/21/2025

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Virmondes Furtado Mendonça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aparecidense U2026%

×Draw25%

Trindade U2049%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aparecidense U20Expected goals in this matchTrindade U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.63

Aparecidense U20

1.13

Trindade U20

1.63

Trindade U20 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

1.21

creates per match

1.64

1.63

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Aparecidense U20

1.21

Trindade U20

1.64

allows per match

Aparecidense U20

1.63

Trindade U20

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aparecidense U20+0.00on par

Trindade U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecidense U20 ↓

Trindade U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Aparecidense U20 or draw

51%

Aparecidense U20 or Trindade U20

75%

Draw or Trindade U20

74%

Winning margin

Aparecidense U20 wins by 2+

10%

Trindade U20 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Aparecidense U20 1+ goals

68%

Aparecidense U20 2+ goals

31%

Aparecidense U20 3+ goals

11%

Trindade U20 1+ goals

80%

Trindade U20 2+ goals

48%

Trindade U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Aparecidense U20 (draw refunded)

35%

Trindade U20 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecidense U20 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Trindade U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecidense U20 attack 1.21 + Trindade U20 defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Trindade U20 attack 1.64 + Aparecidense U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aparecidense U20 scores more

26%

level

25%

Trindade U20 scores more

49%

Trindade U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Trindade U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff