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Aparecidense U20 vs Jataiense U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Aparecidense U20
Aparecidense U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jataiense U20
Jataiense U20
4/28/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Virmondes Furtado Mendonça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Aparecidense U2052%
×Draw22%
Jataiense U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aparecidense U20
1.94
Jataiense U20
1.31

Aparecidense U20 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Aparecidense U20
1.21
Jataiense U20
1.00

allows per match

Aparecidense U20
1.63
Jataiense U20
2.67

finishing

Aparecidense U20+0.00on par
Jataiense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecidense U20 ↓

Jataiense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Aparecidense U20 or draw
74%
Aparecidense U20 or Jataiense U20
78%
Draw or Jataiense U20
48%

Winning margin

Aparecidense U20 wins by 2+
30%
Jataiense U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aparecidense U20 1+ goals
86%
Aparecidense U20 2+ goals
58%
Aparecidense U20 3+ goals
30%
Jataiense U20 1+ goals
73%
Jataiense U20 2+ goals
38%
Jataiense U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aparecidense U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Jataiense U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecidense U20 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Jataiense U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecidense U20 attack 1.21 + Jataiense U20 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

Jataiense U20 attack 1.00 + Aparecidense U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aparecidense U20 scores more
52%
level
22%
Jataiense U20 scores more
26%

Aparecidense U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aparecidense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Aparecidense U20 3–1 Jataiense U20

Aparecidense U20 beat Jataiense U20 3-1 in Goiano U20 on April 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Virmondes Furtado Mendonça in Hidrolândia, Goiás.