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Aparecidense U20 vs Guanabara City U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Aparecidense U20
Aparecidense U20
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Guanabara City U20
Guanabara City U20
4/11/2026Goiano U20Goiano U20 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aparecidense U2032%
×Draw25%
Guanabara City U2043%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aparecidense U20
1.27
Guanabara City U20
1.50

Guanabara City U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Aparecidense U20
1.21
Guanabara City U20
1.36

allows per match

Aparecidense U20
1.63
Guanabara City U20
1.32

finishing

Aparecidense U20+0.00on par
Guanabara City U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecidense U20 ↓

Guanabara City U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Aparecidense U20 or draw
57%
Aparecidense U20 or Guanabara City U20
75%
Draw or Guanabara City U20
68%

Winning margin

Aparecidense U20 wins by 2+
14%
Guanabara City U20 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Aparecidense U20 1+ goals
72%
Aparecidense U20 2+ goals
36%
Aparecidense U20 3+ goals
14%
Guanabara City U20 1+ goals
78%
Guanabara City U20 2+ goals
44%
Guanabara City U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Aparecidense U20 (draw refunded)
43%
Guanabara City U20 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecidense U20 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Guanabara City U20 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecidense U20 attack 1.21 + Guanabara City U20 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guanabara City U20 attack 1.36 + Aparecidense U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aparecidense U20 scores more
32%
level
25%
Guanabara City U20 scores more
43%

Guanabara City U20 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guanabara City U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aparecidense U20 vs Guanabara City U20

Guanabara City U20 beat Aparecidense U20 4-0 in Goiano U20 on April 11, 2026.