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Aparecidense U20 vs Goianesia U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Aparecidense U20
Aparecidense U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Goianesia U20
Goianesia U20
Unknown 83'
Unknown 72'
3/28/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Aparecidense U2058%
×Draw23%
Goianesia U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aparecidense U20
1.85
Goianesia U20
0.98

Aparecidense U20 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Aparecidense U20
1.21
Goianesia U20
0.33

allows per match

Aparecidense U20
1.63
Goianesia U20
2.50

finishing

Aparecidense U20+0.00on par
Goianesia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecidense U20 ↓

Goianesia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Aparecidense U20 or draw
80%
Aparecidense U20 or Goianesia U20
77%
Draw or Goianesia U20
42%

Winning margin

Aparecidense U20 wins by 2+
33%
Goianesia U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aparecidense U20 1+ goals
84%
Aparecidense U20 2+ goals
55%
Aparecidense U20 3+ goals
28%
Goianesia U20 1+ goals
62%
Goianesia U20 2+ goals
26%
Goianesia U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aparecidense U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Goianesia U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecidense U20 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Goianesia U20 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecidense U20 attack 1.21 + Goianesia U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Goianesia U20 attack 0.33 + Aparecidense U20 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Aparecidense U20 scores more
58%
level
23%
Goianesia U20 scores more
20%

Aparecidense U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Aparecidense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
72'
83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Aparecidense U20 1–1 Goianesia U20

Aparecidense U20 and Goianesia U20 drew 1-1 in Goiano U20 on March 28, 2025.

Goals: ? (72', 83').

The match was played at Estádio Annibal Batista de Toledo in Aparecida de Goiânia, Goiás.