Aparecida EC U20 2–1 Royal U20: Result & Stats

Aparecida EC U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Royal U20

5/3/2024

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 10Centro de Treinamento Sussumo Taia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aparecida EC U2045%

×Draw30%

Royal U2025%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aparecida EC U20Expected goals in this matchRoyal U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.82

Aparecida EC U20

1.20

Royal U20

0.82

Aparecida EC U20 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

1.29

creates per match

0.94

0.71

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Aparecida EC U20

1.29

Royal U20

0.94

allows per match

Aparecida EC U20

0.71

Royal U20

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aparecida EC U20+0.00on par

Royal U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecida EC U20 ↓

Royal U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Aparecida EC U20 or draw

75%

Aparecida EC U20 or Royal U20

70%

Draw or Royal U20

55%

Winning margin

Aparecida EC U20 wins by 2+

20%

Royal U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aparecida EC U20 1+ goals

70%

Aparecida EC U20 2+ goals

34%

Aparecida EC U20 3+ goals

12%

Royal U20 1+ goals

56%

Royal U20 2+ goals

20%

Royal U20 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aparecida EC U20 (draw refunded)

64%

Royal U20 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecida EC U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Royal U20 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecida EC U20 attack 1.29 + Royal U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Royal U20 attack 0.94 + Aparecida EC U20 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aparecida EC U20 scores more

45%

level

30%

Royal U20 scores more

25%

Aparecida EC U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aparecida EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff