Aparecida EC U20 1–1 Jataiense U20: Result & Stats

Aparecida EC U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jataiense U20

3/1/2024

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 1Centro de Treinamento Sussumo Taia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aparecida EC U2064%

×Draw21%

Jataiense U2015%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aparecida EC U20Expected goals in this matchJataiense U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.85

Aparecida EC U20

1.98

Jataiense U20

0.85

Aparecida EC U20 creates 133% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.29

creates per match

1.00

0.71

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Aparecida EC U20

1.29

Jataiense U20

1.00

allows per match

Aparecida EC U20

0.71

Jataiense U20

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aparecida EC U20+0.00on par

Jataiense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aparecida EC U20 ↓

Jataiense U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aparecida EC U20 or draw

85%

Aparecida EC U20 or Jataiense U20

79%

Draw or Jataiense U20

36%

Winning margin

Aparecida EC U20 wins by 2+

39%

Jataiense U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Aparecida EC U20 1+ goals

86%

Aparecida EC U20 2+ goals

59%

Aparecida EC U20 3+ goals

31%

Jataiense U20 1+ goals

57%

Jataiense U20 2+ goals

21%

Jataiense U20 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aparecida EC U20 (draw refunded)

81%

Jataiense U20 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aparecida EC U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Jataiense U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aparecida EC U20 attack 1.29 + Jataiense U20 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Jataiense U20 attack 1.00 + Aparecida EC U20 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Aparecida EC U20 scores more

64%

level

21%

Jataiense U20 scores more

15%

Aparecida EC U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Aparecida EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff