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Aoiz vs Valle Egüés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Aoiz
Aoiz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valle Egüés
Valle Egüés
3/7/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 25Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aoiz38%
×Draw25%
Valle Egüés36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aoiz
1.42
Valle Egüés
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 90 away

creates per match

Aoiz
1.47
Valle Egüés
1.27

allows per match

Aoiz
1.47
Valle Egüés
1.38

finishing

Aoiz+0.00on par
Valle Egüés+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aoiz ↓

Valle Egüés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Aoiz or draw
64%
Aoiz or Valle Egüés
75%
Draw or Valle Egüés
62%

Winning margin

Aoiz wins by 2+
18%
Valle Egüés wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Aoiz 1+ goals
76%
Aoiz 2+ goals
41%
Aoiz 3+ goals
17%
Valle Egüés 1+ goals
75%
Valle Egüés 2+ goals
40%
Valle Egüés 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Aoiz (draw refunded)
52%
Valle Egüés (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aoiz at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Valle Egüés away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aoiz attack 1.47 + Valle Egüés defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Valle Egüés attack 1.27 + Aoiz defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aoiz scores more
38%
level
25%
Valle Egüés scores more
36%

Aoiz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aoiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Aoiz 0–0 Valle Egüés

Aoiz and Valle Egüés drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 7, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Agoitz (Aoiz).