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Aoiz vs Subiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Aoiz
Aoiz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Subiza
Subiza
10/4/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 5Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aoiz36%
×Draw26%
Subiza39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aoiz
1.33
Subiza
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

creates per match

Aoiz
1.47
Subiza
1.32

allows per match

Aoiz
1.47
Subiza
1.20

finishing

Aoiz+0.00on par
Subiza+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aoiz ↓

Subiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aoiz or draw
61%
Aoiz or Subiza
74%
Draw or Subiza
64%

Winning margin

Aoiz wins by 2+
16%
Subiza wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Aoiz 1+ goals
74%
Aoiz 2+ goals
38%
Aoiz 3+ goals
15%
Subiza 1+ goals
75%
Subiza 2+ goals
41%
Subiza 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Aoiz (draw refunded)
48%
Subiza (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aoiz at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Subiza away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aoiz attack 1.47 + Subiza defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Subiza attack 1.32 + Aoiz defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aoiz scores more
36%
level
26%
Subiza scores more
39%

Subiza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Subiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aoiz vs Subiza

Aoiz and Subiza drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Agoitz (Aoiz).