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AO Itabaiana vs Sport Recife — Copa do Nordeste 2020

AO Itabaiana
AO Itabaiana
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Recife
Sport Recife
2/14/2024Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 3Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AO Itabaiana29%
×Draw26%
Sport Recife45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AO Itabaiana
1.16
Sport Recife
1.50

Sport Recife creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

creates per match

AO Itabaiana
1.11
Sport Recife
1.21

allows per match

AO Itabaiana
1.78
Sport Recife
1.21

finishing

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par
Sport Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AO Itabaiana ↓

Sport Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AO Itabaiana or draw
55%
AO Itabaiana or Sport Recife
74%
Draw or Sport Recife
71%

Winning margin

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+
12%
Sport Recife wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals
69%
AO Itabaiana 2+ goals
32%
AO Itabaiana 3+ goals
11%
Sport Recife 1+ goals
78%
Sport Recife 2+ goals
44%
Sport Recife 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)
39%
Sport Recife (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AO Itabaiana at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Sport Recife away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AO Itabaiana attack 1.11 + Sport Recife defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Sport Recife attack 1.21 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AO Itabaiana scores more
29%
level
26%
Sport Recife scores more
45%

Sport Recife at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sport Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: AO Itabaiana 1–2 Sport Recife

Sport Recife beat AO Itabaiana 2-1 in Copa do Nordeste on February 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista in Aracaju, Sergipe.