AO Itabaiana 3–0 Interporto: Result & Stats

AO Itabaiana

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Interporto

5/20/2019

Serie D · Round 3Estádio Etelvino Mendonça (Itabaiana, Sergipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AO Itabaiana84%

×Draw11%

Interporto5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AO ItabaianaExpected goals in this matchInterporto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

0.58

AO Itabaiana

2.94

Interporto

0.58

AO Itabaiana creates 407% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 13 away

2.03

creates per match

0.23

0.92

allows per match

3.85

creates per match

AO Itabaiana

2.03

Interporto

0.23

allows per match

AO Itabaiana

0.92

Interporto

3.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par

Interporto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AO Itabaiana ↓

Interporto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

AO Itabaiana or draw

95%

AO Itabaiana or Interporto

89%

Draw or Interporto

16%

Winning margin

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+

65%

Interporto wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals

95%

AO Itabaiana 2+ goals

79%

AO Itabaiana 3+ goals

55%

Interporto 1+ goals

44%

Interporto 2+ goals

12%

Interporto 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)

95%

Interporto (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AO Itabaiana at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.92 · 37 matches

Interporto away — creates 0.23, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AO Itabaiana attack 2.03 + Interporto defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.94

Interporto attack 0.23 + AO Itabaiana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

AO Itabaiana scores more

84%

level

11%

Interporto scores more

5%

AO Itabaiana at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "AO Itabaiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff