AO Itabaiana 1–4 Fluminense De Feira

AO Itabaiana

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Fluminense De Feira

Paulinho Macaiba 55'

Rafael Granja 83', 43'

Janeudo 66'

João Neto 51'

5/21/2017

Serie D · Round 1Estádio Etelvino Mendonça (Itabaiana, Sergipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AO Itabaiana44%

×Draw25%

Fluminense De Feira32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AO ItabaianaExpected goals in this matchFluminense De Feira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.31

AO Itabaiana

1.59

Fluminense De Feira

1.31

AO Itabaiana creates 21% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 13 away

2.03

creates per match

1.62

1.00

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

AO Itabaiana

2.03

Fluminense De Feira

1.62

allows per match

AO Itabaiana

1.00

Fluminense De Feira

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par

Fluminense De Feira+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AO Itabaiana ↓

Fluminense De Feira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AO Itabaiana or draw

68%

AO Itabaiana or Fluminense De Feira

75%

Draw or Fluminense De Feira

56%

Winning margin

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+

22%

Fluminense De Feira wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals

80%

AO Itabaiana 2+ goals

47%

AO Itabaiana 3+ goals

21%

Fluminense De Feira 1+ goals

73%

Fluminense De Feira 2+ goals

38%

Fluminense De Feira 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)

58%

Fluminense De Feira (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AO Itabaiana at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Fluminense De Feira away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AO Itabaiana attack 2.03 + Fluminense De Feira defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fluminense De Feira attack 1.62 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AO Itabaiana scores more

44%

level

25%

Fluminense De Feira scores more

32%

AO Itabaiana at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AO Itabaiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

51'

55'

66'

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff