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AO Itabaiana vs CRB — Copa do Nordeste 2020

AO Itabaiana
AO Itabaiana
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CRB
CRB
3/25/2026Copa do NordesteCopa do Nordeste · Group Stage - 1Estadio Etelvino Mendonca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

AO Itabaiana36%
×Draw27%
CRB37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AO Itabaiana
1.23
CRB
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

creates per match

AO Itabaiana
1.11
CRB
0.72

allows per match

AO Itabaiana
1.78
CRB
1.34

finishing

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par
CRB+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AO Itabaiana ↓

CRB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AO Itabaiana or draw
63%
AO Itabaiana or CRB
73%
Draw or CRB
64%

Winning margin

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+
15%
CRB wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals
71%
AO Itabaiana 2+ goals
35%
AO Itabaiana 3+ goals
13%
CRB 1+ goals
71%
CRB 2+ goals
36%
CRB 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)
49%
CRB (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AO Itabaiana at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

CRB away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AO Itabaiana attack 1.11 + CRB defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

CRB attack 0.72 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AO Itabaiana scores more
36%
level
27%
CRB scores more
37%

CRB at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Nordeste: AO Itabaiana 0–0 CRB

AO Itabaiana and CRB drew 0-0 in Copa do Nordeste on March 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Etelvino Mendonca in Itabaiana.