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AO Itabaiana vs Brusque — Serie C 2025

AO Itabaiana
AO Itabaiana
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brusque
Brusque
Renatinho 44'
7/13/2026Serie CSerie C · Round 14Estadio Etelvino Mendonca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

AO Itabaiana39%
×Draw28%
Brusque33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AO Itabaiana
1.21
Brusque
1.09

AO Itabaiana creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

creates per match

AO Itabaiana
1.13
Brusque
1.19

allows per match

AO Itabaiana
1.00
Brusque
1.29

finishing

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par
Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AO Itabaiana ↓

Brusque →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AO Itabaiana or draw
67%
AO Itabaiana or Brusque
72%
Draw or Brusque
61%

Winning margin

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+
17%
Brusque wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals
70%
AO Itabaiana 2+ goals
34%
AO Itabaiana 3+ goals
12%
Brusque 1+ goals
66%
Brusque 2+ goals
30%
Brusque 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)
54%
Brusque (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AO Itabaiana at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Brusque away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AO Itabaiana attack 1.13 + Brusque defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Brusque attack 1.19 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AO Itabaiana scores more
39%
level
28%
Brusque scores more
33%

AO Itabaiana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AO Itabaiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
Renatinho
46'
Marlyson← Alvaro
54'
Tarcisio
59'
Fabricio Moura
62'
Valdenilson← Cleiton
62'
Dyego← Renatinho
68'
Everton Kanela← Rodrigo Alves
69'
Ariel← Gazao
79'
Tito← Tarcisio
79'
Elimar← Leilson
80'
Davi Gabriel← Raimar
80'
Clinton← Joao Pedro
85'
Ligger
86'
Renan← Adrianinho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AO Itabaiana vs Brusque

AO Itabaiana beat Brusque 1-0 in Serie C on July 13, 2026.

Goals: Renatinho (44').

The match was played at Estadio Etelvino Mendonca in Itabaiana.