AO Itabaiana 1–1 ABC: Result & Stats | Serie D

AO Itabaiana

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ABC

Thiago Santos 90+5' (pen)

Tibiri 34'

9/20/2020

Serie D · Round 1Estádio Etelvino Mendonça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

AO Itabaiana46%

×Draw26%

ABC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AO ItabaianaExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.09

AO Itabaiana

1.49

ABC

1.09

AO Itabaiana creates 37% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 26 away

2.03

creates per match

1.19

1.00

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

AO Itabaiana

2.03

ABC

1.19

allows per match

AO Itabaiana

1.00

ABC

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AO Itabaiana+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AO Itabaiana ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AO Itabaiana or draw

72%

AO Itabaiana or ABC

74%

Draw or ABC

54%

Winning margin

AO Itabaiana wins by 2+

23%

ABC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AO Itabaiana 1+ goals

77%

AO Itabaiana 2+ goals

44%

AO Itabaiana 3+ goals

19%

ABC 1+ goals

66%

ABC 2+ goals

30%

ABC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AO Itabaiana (draw refunded)

63%

ABC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AO Itabaiana at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

ABC away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AO Itabaiana attack 2.03 + ABC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.49

ABC attack 1.19 + AO Itabaiana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AO Itabaiana scores more

46%

level

26%

ABC scores more

28%

AO Itabaiana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AO Itabaiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Tibiri

50'

Vinicius← Tibiri

57'

Alex Sandre← Otavio

63'

Felipe Alves← Berguinho

67'

Fagner← Pedro Henrique

67'

P. Koffi← Birungueta

78'

Fabricio← Valderrama

90+5'

Thiago SantosPenalty

AO

ABC

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Ferreira

57'▲Alex Sandre←▼Otavio

67'▲Fagner←▼Pedro Henrique

67'▲P. Koffi←▼Birungueta

AO Itabaiana substitutes

SandreFagnerKoffiAndrezonGeovaniNicolodiManoelMessiasRafaelPieterSavio

Manager: Francisco Diá

50'▲Vinicius←▼Tibiri

63'▲Felipe Alves←▼Berguinho

78'▲Fabricio←▼Valderrama

ABC substitutes

ViniciusAlvesFabricioAlissonBaffanaHiagoPassarelliCosta