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Anzio vs San Marzano — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Anzio
Anzio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Marzano
San Marzano
1/7/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 18Stadio Anco Marzio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Anzio37%
×Draw28%
San Marzano35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzio
1.21
San Marzano
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Anzio
1.13
San Marzano
0.71

allows per match

Anzio
1.65
San Marzano
1.29

finishing

Anzio+0.00on par
San Marzano+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzio ↓

San Marzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Anzio or draw
65%
Anzio or San Marzano
72%
Draw or San Marzano
63%

Winning margin

Anzio wins by 2+
16%
San Marzano wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Anzio 1+ goals
70%
Anzio 2+ goals
34%
Anzio 3+ goals
12%
San Marzano 1+ goals
69%
San Marzano 2+ goals
33%
San Marzano 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Anzio (draw refunded)
51%
San Marzano (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzio at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.65 · 52 matches

San Marzano away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzio attack 1.13 + San Marzano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

San Marzano attack 0.71 + Anzio defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Anzio scores more
37%
level
28%
San Marzano scores more
35%

Anzio at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Anzio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anzio vs San Marzano

Anzio beat San Marzano 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Anco Marzio in Lido di Ostia.