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Anzio vs Ostia Mare — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Anzio
Anzio
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Ostia Mare
Ostia Mare
11/25/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 13Stadio Comunale Bartolani di Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Anzio27%
×Draw25%
Ostia Mare49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzio
1.14
Ostia Mare
1.63

Ostia Mare creates 43% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 48 away

creates per match

Anzio
1.13
Ostia Mare
1.60

allows per match

Anzio
1.65
Ostia Mare
1.15

finishing

Anzio+0.00on par
Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzio ↓

Ostia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Anzio or draw
51%
Anzio or Ostia Mare
75%
Draw or Ostia Mare
73%

Winning margin

Anzio wins by 2+
10%
Ostia Mare wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Anzio 1+ goals
68%
Anzio 2+ goals
32%
Anzio 3+ goals
11%
Ostia Mare 1+ goals
80%
Ostia Mare 2+ goals
48%
Ostia Mare 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Anzio (draw refunded)
35%
Ostia Mare (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzio at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.65 · 52 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzio attack 1.13 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Anzio defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Anzio scores more
27%
level
25%
Ostia Mare scores more
49%

Ostia Mare at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Anzio 1–3 Ostia Mare

Ostia Mare beat Anzio 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Bartolani di Cisterna in Cisterna di Latina.