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Anzio vs Latte Dolce — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Anzio
Anzio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
11/16/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Anzio37%
×Draw26%
Latte Dolce38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzio
1.36
Latte Dolce
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 82 away

creates per match

Anzio
1.13
Latte Dolce
1.10

allows per match

Anzio
1.65
Latte Dolce
1.59

finishing

Anzio+0.00on par
Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzio ↓

Latte Dolce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Anzio or draw
62%
Anzio or Latte Dolce
74%
Draw or Latte Dolce
63%

Winning margin

Anzio wins by 2+
17%
Latte Dolce wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Anzio 1+ goals
74%
Anzio 2+ goals
39%
Anzio 3+ goals
16%
Latte Dolce 1+ goals
75%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
40%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Anzio (draw refunded)
49%
Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzio at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.65 · 52 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzio attack 1.13 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Anzio defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Anzio scores more
37%
level
26%
Latte Dolce scores more
38%

Latte Dolce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Latte Dolce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Anzio 2–0 Latte Dolce

Anzio beat Latte Dolce 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 16, 2025.