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Anzio vs Cavese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Anzio
Anzio
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Cavese
Cavese
4/28/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 33Stadio Comunale Bartolani di Cisterna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Anzio20%
×Draw25%
Cavese55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzio
0.89
Cavese
1.65

Cavese creates 85% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Anzio
1.13
Cavese
1.65

allows per match

Anzio
1.65
Cavese
0.65

finishing

Anzio+0.00on par
Cavese+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzio ↓

Cavese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Anzio or draw
45%
Anzio or Cavese
75%
Draw or Cavese
80%

Winning margin

Anzio wins by 2+
7%
Cavese wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Anzio 1+ goals
59%
Anzio 2+ goals
22%
Anzio 3+ goals
6%
Cavese 1+ goals
81%
Cavese 2+ goals
49%
Cavese 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Anzio (draw refunded)
27%
Cavese (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzio at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.65 · 52 matches

Cavese away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzio attack 1.13 + Cavese defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.89

Cavese attack 1.65 + Anzio defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Anzio scores more
20%
level
25%
Cavese scores more
55%

Cavese at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cavese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Anzio 1–3 Cavese

Cavese beat Anzio 3-1 in Serie D - Girone G on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Bartolani di Cisterna in Cisterna di Latina.