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Anzio vs Ardea — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Anzio
Anzio
FT
2 – 1
Ardea
Ardea
12/10/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 15Stadio Anco Marzio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Anzio33%
×Draw25%
Ardea42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzio
1.27
Ardea
1.47

Ardea creates 16% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Anzio
1.13
Ardea
1.29

allows per match

Anzio
1.65
Ardea
1.41

finishing

Anzio+0.00on par
Ardea+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzio ↓

Ardea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Anzio or draw
58%
Anzio or Ardea
75%
Draw or Ardea
67%

Winning margin

Anzio wins by 2+
14%
Ardea wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Anzio 1+ goals
72%
Anzio 2+ goals
36%
Anzio 3+ goals
14%
Ardea 1+ goals
77%
Ardea 2+ goals
43%
Ardea 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Anzio (draw refunded)
44%
Ardea (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzio at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.65 · 52 matches

Ardea away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzio attack 1.13 + Ardea defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ardea attack 1.29 + Anzio defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Anzio scores more
33%
level
25%
Ardea scores more
42%

Ardea at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ardea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Anzio 2–1 Ardea

Anzio beat Ardea 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Anco Marzio in Lido di Ostia.