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Anzhi vs Zenit Saint Petersburg — Premier League 2018

Anzhi
Anzhi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
9/30/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Anzhi15%
×Draw24%
Zenit Saint Petersburg61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzhi
0.66
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.65

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 150% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

creates per match

Anzhi
0.53
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.64

allows per match

Anzhi
1.67
Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.78

finishing

Anzhi+0.00on par
Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzhi ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–214%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Anzhi or draw
39%
Anzhi or Zenit Saint Petersburg
76%
Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg
85%

Winning margin

Anzhi wins by 2+
4%
Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Anzhi 1+ goals
48%
Anzhi 2+ goals
14%
Anzhi 3+ goals
3%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
81%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
49%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Anzhi (draw refunded)
19%
Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzhi at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzhi attack 0.53 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.66

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.64 + Anzhi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Anzhi scores more
15%
level
24%
Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
61%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Anzhi 2–1 Zenit Saint Petersburg

Anzhi beat Zenit Saint Petersburg 2-1 in Premier League on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Anzhi-Arena in Makhachkala.