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Anzhi vs Tuapse — Second League - Group 1 2020

Anzhi
Anzhi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tuapse
Tuapse
8/2/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Anzhi65%
×Draw19%
Tuapse16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzhi
2.36
Tuapse
1.08

Anzhi creates 119% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Anzhi
1.72
Tuapse
1.09

allows per match

Anzhi
1.06
Tuapse
3.00

finishing

Anzhi+0.00on par
Tuapse+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzhi ↓

Tuapse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Anzhi or draw
84%
Anzhi or Tuapse
81%
Draw or Tuapse
35%

Winning margin

Anzhi wins by 2+
43%
Tuapse wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Anzhi 1+ goals
90%
Anzhi 2+ goals
68%
Anzhi 3+ goals
41%
Tuapse 1+ goals
66%
Tuapse 2+ goals
29%
Tuapse 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Anzhi (draw refunded)
80%
Tuapse (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzhi at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

Tuapse away — creates 1.09, concedes 3.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzhi attack 1.72 + Tuapse defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.36

Tuapse attack 1.09 + Anzhi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Anzhi scores more
65%
level
19%
Tuapse scores more
16%

Anzhi at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Anzhi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anzhi vs Tuapse

Anzhi beat Tuapse 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Makhachkala.