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Anzhi vs Orenburg — Premier League 2018

Anzhi
Anzhi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Orenburg
Orenburg
8/17/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Anzhi33%
×Draw27%
Orenburg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzhi
1.21
Orenburg
1.36

Orenburg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Anzhi
0.53
Orenburg
1.05

allows per match

Anzhi
1.67
Orenburg
1.89

finishing

Anzhi+0.00on par
Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzhi ↓

Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Anzhi or draw
60%
Anzhi or Orenburg
73%
Draw or Orenburg
67%

Winning margin

Anzhi wins by 2+
14%
Orenburg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Anzhi 1+ goals
70%
Anzhi 2+ goals
34%
Anzhi 3+ goals
12%
Orenburg 1+ goals
74%
Orenburg 2+ goals
39%
Orenburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Anzhi (draw refunded)
45%
Orenburg (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzhi at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzhi attack 0.53 + Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.21

Orenburg attack 1.05 + Anzhi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Anzhi scores more
33%
level
27%
Orenburg scores more
40%

Orenburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Orenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anzhi vs Orenburg

Orenburg beat Anzhi 3-1 in Premier League on August 17, 2018.

The match was played at Anzhi-Arena in Makhachkala.